Projecting the future cost of PEM and alkaline water electrolysers; a CAPEX model including electrolyser plant size and technology development

The investment costs of water electrolysis represent one key challenge for the realisation renewable hydrogen-based energy systems. This work presents a technology cost assessment and outlook towards 2030 alkaline electrolysers (AEL) PEM (PEMEL) in MW to GW range taking into consideration effects plant size expected developments. Critical selected data was fitted modified power law describe an electrolyser based on overall capacity learning/technology development rate derive estimations different PEMEL AEL capacities 2030. analysis predicts that CAPEX gap between technologies will decrease significantly with until 1–10 range. Beyond this, only marginal reductions can be values approaching 320–400 $/kW large scale (greater than 100 MW) plants by subsequent possible. Learning rates were estimated at 25–30% both PEMEL, which are higher learning reported previous literature. • A model including improvements has been developed. Steeper have previously reported. Electrolyser is important parameter include when estimating technologies. decreases